TGuide2.18.20_mixdown Athens 0 Speaker 1: (00:00)This is Thomas Speaker 2: (00:02)guide your roadmap or navigating the world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is Thomas guide with your host, John Thomas. Revs up his engines, the Daytona 500 with a historic lap and the beast. Speaker 1: (00:32)Ernie breaks out of the pack in Nevada. That and more politics in this episode of the Thomas [inaudible] Speaker 2: (00:39)guide. Speaker 1: (00:48)Welcome back to the Thomas guide on a Tuesday. As we are the day before in other presidential debate, we’ll see if Bloomberg does decide to debate my hunches. He will because the consequences of him not debating is far greater than the consequence on a long term basis. Then the consequences of him taking some fire, uh, on the debate stage. So he’ll be there. Uh, we’ll of course cover it and, uh, we’ll, I’ll probably do Wednesday mornings podcasts, kind of what to expect and, uh, my predictions and what to watch for. So a couple things in the podcast today. Uh, I didn’t get to this over the weekend, but Trump, uh, revs up the Daytona 500 with his historic lap in the beast, which is the presidential, uh, [inaudible]. That’s the presidential limo. Uh, this thing is, I think it weighs something like 25,000 pounds and it’s bomb proof, Bulletproof, et cetera, et cetera. Speaker 1: (01:57)He went and did a lap, uh, to start off before the race. This is the first time a president has done such a thing, uh, in what I thought was a brilliant PR move to actually do the lap. And then he delivered a great American racist iconic command of gentlemen, start your engines. It’s the first of any president to take that lap in the, in the beast. And Trump was the racist grand Marshall first lady. Melania, of course, was there. There were about 100,000 people at the race track in Florida’s Daytona Speedway. Uh, Trump called this race pure American glory. Now, um, Trump got a lot of flack from the mainstream media for doing this, but there, this was actually a brilliant PR move for a couple reasons. First, uh, smart of NASCAR. Trump is overwhelmingly popular with NASCAR attendees and viewership. So that, wow, that was a no brainer for NASCAR. Speaker 1: (03:07)Ratings are out about a day later. And it turns out that rating surge 19% to almost 11 million people from the prior years, a Daytona 500. So all of this is a win for ratings. Uh, Trump, uh, Maggie Habermann or of the New York times who’s a Trump critic, said, uh, how does Trump expect to S X? How does he expect to expand the base with this? What would he doesn’t understand his or she doesn’t understand? Is the appeal to, uh, voters both in Florida swing voters and across the country of NASCAR. She doesn’t understand that of course, because she’s a liberal New York times writer who’s probably never been to a NASCAR game, doesn’t understand the cult like following of NASCAR. So Trump, with this move, Florida was already thought to be a leaning towards Trump this cycle. Remember, Florida is a historically tight state, but Democrats even prior to this move were starting to write it off and focus on other States because Trump’s just been strong there. Speaker 1: (04:21)They like him. Uh, the current governor, uh, who’s a Republican has upwards of 60% approval. But I think this saw the lead to this move. Just one of those things that will solidly deliver Florida for Trump. Because just because you’re a NASCAR watcher and Devo T does not make you a Republican. So Trump just showed his relate-ability his passion and of course, God, he’s, this is where Trump gets optics. He understands television doing the lap and the beast. It’s first of all awesome. It’s fun and exciting, but it gets people to tune in. Normally if the president throws out an opening pitch, people only care if something goes wrong, but they’re not watching in record record numbers trumping the grand Marshall and doing something that’s just, it’s just an unbelievable display. Uh, supposedly Trump said that he was, he wanted to drive the beast, but legally he’s prohibited by law from driving the beast. Speaker 1: (05:24)But Trump was, uh, apparently the advanced team and Trump were mulling over whether or not Trump wanted to actually get in an actual NASCAR and take a lap. That would’ve been really cool. But, uh, that didn’t have having, but regardless, the optics were on point. This was a brilliant maneuver. And if it did come down to a Bloomberg Trump situation, can you ever imagine Bloomberg who, if you haven’t seen it, uh, you’ve got to Google Bloomberg and Mary Poppins. Uh, Bloomberg just does it look like a bold, charismatic leader. He just doesn’t, he’s really rich. That’s undeniable. But he doesn’t instill confidence. He’s not old. He’s not visionary. He doesn’t take risks. He would never do something like this. And as the narrative is evolving, really it has nothing to do with Trump right now that Bloomberg, we talked about this on yesterday’s podcast. Bloomberg is unrelatable. He’s out of touch. Speaker 1: (06:27)He’s everything. You think that he 1% elitist wall street billionaire would be talking smack against women and farmers. And uh, you know that he loads people who watch NASCAR. You know, it. I mean, it just, it fits in his persona. Meanwhile, Trump is earning his Monica moniker of being a blue call billionaire by relating to these kinds of sports. Now, whether or not Trump actually watches NASCAR, and I have a feeling he doesn’t, but he appreciates those people and he’s smart enough to make a big deal out of America, out of NASCAR and showing the connection to people who value those items. So really smart. He might’ve locked down Florida with this one move and it just goes to show you that Trump is unlike any political figure we’ve truly ever seen. Could he have just been the grand Marshall? Yeah, he could have, but he freaking took the beast out for a lap. Speaker 1: (07:29)I mean, anyway, that’s, it’s honestly just a, it’s brilliant. You know, there was a, I got some flack because on Twitter from some liberal journalists, friends of mine who, uh, when I called this a brilliant move, they said, you know, how would you have felt if Trump, I mean, if Obama brought out the beast on court on the court of an NBA game, you would be criticizing that. I said, well, if it makes sense, I’ve got to give credit where credit’s due. If a sport resolve revolves around vehicles and cars and you drive out on and it’s on a track and you drive it on the track, that makes sense. It wouldn’t have made any sense. Is the beast did a lap around an NBA court vehicles have nothing to do with the NBA. Now if Obama wanted to go out there, do a couple of dribbles of which Obama did play recreational basketball. Speaker 1: (08:27)If he wanted to go do a couple of dribbles and try to dunk or do the dunking contest where they jump on a trampoline. Yeah, that would’ve been actually amazing and smart. But it’s an apples and oranges comparison and it’s just the liberals can’t stand it. They load the people who watch NASCAR and they load that. They know this was a smart political and uh, PR move from Trump. So good on Trump. Uh, very, very cool. I got to tell you, it was exciting to watch. It really was exciting to watch it happen. Just really neat, neat stuff. I love it when politicians do things that are unorthodox, take a little bit of a risk, uh, even knowing they’re going to get flack for it in the process. Just cool. Really, really neat. The other portion I want to focus on this podcast today is Bernie is breaking out of the pack in Nevada. Speaker 1: (09:22)You know, Nevada caucus is coming up very soon and most experts, even in Nevada, most consultants and the rival consultants have a to Bernie Sanders who represented the other candidates in the democratic nomination have all but accepted that Bernie will win Nevada and now the race is really for second and third place. Ernie currently is pulling it about, if you look at the averages at about 26 to 28% experts are saying that Bernie isn’t going to capture over, isn’t going to get, Hmm, 30% or more. I actually am not convinced Bernie really does have big Moe on his side. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did eclipse 30% but regardless, this is a jolt of momentum that Bernie, I don’t want to say that he desperately needs, but he’s gotten momentum on his side right now. This will continue. The good times continue the coffers to be refilled by small donors. Speaker 1: (10:18)This is going to be very, very good and proof that Bernie needs to show that he has appeal beyond white liberal boaters that we saw break for him in those first two early States. This is a Biden who has said it’s not about Nevada, it’s all about South Carolina has now regrouped and put a ton of his money off the airwaves in South Carolina and he’s going all in on Nevada. Now. Why? Because Biden has said, yeah, he made do not do well with white liberals, but he really does well with minorities and it’s all about South Carolina. But what Biden’s now noticing is that he is getting choked out and suffocated waiting, waiting for South Carolina. So much so that his polls may tank by the time he gets to South Carolina, and then he may lose South Carolina or come in a week first place. So he realizes he has to stop the bleed and have a decent showing in Nevada. Speaker 1: (11:16)So he’s got an angle for a second place. Now, polling has him within a point or two of second place and well, he’s wobbling between second and third place right now. It’s possible that he slips into a third or fourth place if that happens. Yeah. Boy, it is not, uh, the comeback kid. Uh, that dream is going to be gone. So he’s got to figure out how to re invigorate himself. This is, this is tough. This is really tough. Now remember, Bloomberg, uh, is not even on the ballot in Nevada, so he, he’s not competing in that state. So this really is a Buddha judge Warren. Uh, let’s assume Bernie gets first place for the sake of argument. This is a Bloomberg, or excuse me, uh, a Biden, a Buddha judge, uh, Warren in a club, which our fight was Stier kind of somewhere off in the distance there. Speaker 3: (12:13)Uh, Speaker 1: (12:16)it appears that Amy will not have a great night that night. It appears that Buddha judge will not have a good night. So can Warren, what can she do? Uh, does Biden get sacked in this process? I think Biden’s biggest problem at the moment is that he’s not in the, he’s not really thought right now to be a top tier contender. This is shaping up to be a Bloomberg Bernie fight with a secondary Buddha judge floating somewhere out there. That’s what the chatter is, is, is happening. And so the polling, oftentimes people shift their votes to the people we’re talking about. And Biden doesn’t have a ton of dough to really reshape that narrative. So if Biden gets blown out in Nevada, he may not have a very good night in South Carolina in we’ll see. Now here’s where this contest, uh, could get a little bit an inch. Interesting. What if buy in does not great, but okay. Speaker 1: (13:23)Comes in a week, second place in Nevada. Let’s say he comes in a so, so positioned first place in South Carolina. What does that mean? Does that mean Biden’s a comeback kid? Well, he’ll try to spin it that way. What we’re seeing play out is reminiscent of 2016 when people said, well, Trump can’t win the nomination because he has a, yeah, he’s got his core group of people, but it’s not enough to to get across the finish line. Well, it didn’t, it worked okay for Trump because the field is so fractured for enough period of time that Trump was able to rack up enough delegates to become the nominee or seeing something similar. It’s too early to definitively say this, but we’re seeing starting to see something similar playing out for Bernie, this carousel of moderate left Democrats each having something to claim as a quasi victory could cause the fuel to remain, to be somewhat fractured, allowing Bernie to become the nominee because he’s the one that continues to come out on top, over and over and over. Speaker 1: (14:30)So what Biden needs, he needs to have a strong second place finish in, in Nevada. He needs to have a dominant first place finish in South Carolina and somehow hope that Bloomberg implodes because of all of his past statements and then emerge to be the consensus choice. A lot of things have to fall in play. Somebody asked me this the other day, I thought it was an interesting question, which is can Elizabeth, why is Elizabeth Warren still in this race? She’s languishing third, fourth, fifth place. Um, why does she just not drop out? Well, first of all, she’s got enough money to stay in for, I calculated her burn rate and she roughly has 30 days worth of burn. She has one month remaining of money. Uh, and so she needs to have some kind of surprise victory where she can claim victory, replenish or coffers. But really what she’s waiting for is a Bernie collapse, a Buddha judge collapse the race people to fall out and for Warren to collect the pieces, that’s what she’s waiting for. Speaker 1: (15:46)So it’s the same thing, quite frankly, I would argue about Buddha judge. He’s waiting for a Bloomberg collapse, uh, so that he can become the standard bearer, center left candidate, uh, all of these people. And you know what, although those are unlikely to completely implode because Bloomberg can keep cutting checks, it’s actually not a terrible strategy at least for another few weeks. If you’ve got the money to keep going, keep going. See how it plays out because this race hasn’t played out yet and anything can still happen, uh, candidates can absolutely still implode. So stick it out. I wouldn’t recommend dropping out, although if you’re worn, you have to know at this point your odds are getting slimmer and slimmer and slimmer. So Mmm, Speaker 4: (16:35)that Speaker 1: (16:37)there has to be concerning. But you got to keep your chin up and keep going and, and, and see what can happen. And there still is a chance there. So of course you can tweet me at the Thomas guide, go to the T guy.com and sign up for my email list if you haven’t, or rolling out exclusive content. It’s a pop up menu email@example.com. If you want to leave me a review on iTunes, that’s cool too. Helps the algorithms boost the, showed other people who haven’t heard of us. So thanks for listening and we’ll catch you tomorrow with some what to expect in the debate analysis on another episode of the Thomas guide.