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Speaker 1: (00:00)
This is

Speaker 2: (00:01)
the Thomas guide your roadmap for navigating the world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is Thomas Guy with your host, John Thomas. Leading. Go into my take on the reliability of the political polls this cycle. What’s coming up next in this episode, the Thomas guide.

Speaker 1: (00:40)
Welcome back to a, another episode of the Thomas guide. I’m John Thomas, your host. Well, today I’m going to play a hit I did on Fox and friends first yesterday morning where I went in with Heather, the, uh, the host and we, I really went on solo with her because she wanted my opinion on polling the reliability of pulling this cycle, uh, turnout models in New Hampshire, what’s going on nationally. And I, uh, you know, after I did the head of that, I felt that it was, uh, so good then I thought you would appreciate hearing what I had to say to Heather. So I’m going to play that. And there’s a lot of things bubbling. Uh, Bloomberg is the talk of the town. Uh, right now I think is he starting to, Oh, attempt to fill in the Biden gaps. The other fascinating thing I’m looking at is Bernie Sanders.

Speaker 1: (01:43)
He’s winning with all minorities. He’s kept the capturing the largest share now, not like Joe Biden when he was carrying 50% of African Americans, but as minorities are scattering earnings, winning with Latinos is winning with African Americans. [inaudible] and he’s winning with younger demographics as well. The missing component for Bernie is dominating. If he could the African Americans, but I don’t know that he has to, but it’s really older, whiter, more moderate left. Ah, voters, he has to solve that. But going into Nevada, there’s lots of Latino voters. He’s winning with Latinos. Um, if he can solve that, he’s got it. So it’s early. There’s still time, but keep these essential groups in the democratic primary are wiggling Bernie Sanders way. So I’m going to play the clip, but from my Fox eight. But before I do that, I want to remind you as I do every episode, go to the T guide.com and subscribe for free to my email list. Do it either right now or right after the show. Because for instance, last night I, uh, I was at USC and I was being interviewed on my philosophy on campaigns and name ID and politics. Uh, I videoed the whole thing with good audio quality. I’m going to share that, but only if you are on my email list. Otherwise you will not get it. So sign up for that email list. It’s free. And uh, if you want to share the podcast with a friend, that’d be great too. So let’s roll my Fox news clip.

Speaker 3: (03:24)
[inaudible]

Speaker 4: (03:30)
for a great victory tonight. We are here to stay the era that began with you here in New Hampshire. I came back and we delivered, well 2020 hopefuls taking a victory lap after new Hampshire’s tight race lands. Bernie Sanders on top with Buddha judge on his coattails. But the biggest surprise of the night is Amy Klobuchar with a strong third place showing. So did the polls get it right here to crunch the numbers? You have people, sir John Thomas, always love having him with us. Thank you so much.

Speaker 5: (04:04)
Good to see Heather. So as we began just come in

Speaker 4: (04:06)
on the, the primary results that we have, we have 25.73% with Sanders Buddha judge right behind him. And then Klobuchar moving up to third and Warren in fourth bite and not even on the screen yet. He’s on in fifth place.

Speaker 5: (04:20)
Well, first the polling by and large, it’s pretty, been pretty accurate this cycle. It did predict, but most of the polling predicted Sanders in a first place booted judge in a second place. What is it showed Clover char on the move, but it didn’t really show the CLO mentum that expected to take her in a third place finish. And some might say that because P Buddha judge, uh, lost a first-place finished by less than 1% that perhaps it was a CLO mentum that stole the first place finished from him. So what does this mean, Heather? It means that as surge and Amy means the death of Joe Biden. Yes. Slips so far behind, and Amy’s going to be here at least through super Tuesday. Joe needs to be counting the, the moments that he, until he drops out of this race.

Speaker 4: (05:09)
Right? Oh, well, he’s already moved on to South Carolina, says he’s not done yet. He said, you know, we have the whole rest of the country to deal with and seems to at least putting on a positive face up front. You mentioned those holes though. I want you to talk a little bit more about these. The latest two polls that we have that you were referencing, Suffolk university, Boston globe, WBZ TV, Sanders as you said, leading with 27% in this poll. Then you have Buddha judge and Klobuchar in third place, not as close between Sanders and Buddha. Judge though in this poll, as it ended up being. And then the second poll we had from a Emerson college also predicted the same top five, but with different percentages of Biden not fairing well in that poll either.

Speaker 5: (05:50)
Yeah. Uh, the polling has, uh, predicted perhaps not the, the top, uh, person because it’s been within the margin of error in both the Iowa, New Hampshire. But what has gotten right is the losers. Uh, and what we’re seeing nationally in the Quinnipiac is that Bernie Sanders has finally eclipsed Joe Biden as the front runner and make no mistake about it. Heather, uh, uh, Bernie Sanders is the democratic front runner nationally right now. He is leading every front. And what it’s also showed is Joe Biden’s firewall of not just South Carolina, but African Americans. He used to be carrying 50% of the African American voting block that’s fallen in the latest Quinnipiac poll to 25%. If African Americans are abandoning Joe Biden, what is he left?

Speaker 4: (06:35)
Well, you know, like everyone else in the country, they’re looking at these first two races, the caucus in Iowa, the primary in New Hampshire, and seeing that he’s not doing so well there and they obviously want to pick a winner. So we’ll see what happens in South Carolina and Nevada. Talk about the independent voters and we can bring up this Fox news voter analysis for you where it says at 14% there were Democrat or were independents, I should say. Uh, what role will independent voters play or what did, what role did they play in the New Hampshire primary?

Speaker 5: (07:06)
Well, they’re largely responsible for Amy Klobuchar is surge to third place. Most exit polling has shown that also the, the, the largest block of undecideds going into election day were independence that likely broke with Amy. So there’s a couple things. First of all, it’s interesting that these independence didn’t choose the far left candidates. They chose the candidate that was most closely aligned with the center. Uh, but it, it’s giving Amy her boost of momentum. She’s not going anywhere, but the problem is running into super Tuesday is to put together a national campaign operation and ground games. We, you don’t have any to compete on. Super Tuesday is very, very difficult even if she’s doing well with independence. Right.

Speaker 4: (07:51)
Well we will see where the independence and the undecideds go after her. A good showing here. Thank you so much. Appreciate you joining us as always.

Speaker 1: (07:59)
Thanks Heather. Have a great day. I hope you enjoyed my Fox news conversation with Heather Childers. There’s a lot more to say on polling. I love this stuff. If you really want me to geek out, tweet me or email me, uh, you can go on the Thomas guide at Twitter, Facebook, send me a message and I’ll dig into it. If you have particular polling question or if you just want me to actually kind of unpack holing more, we can do that. Um, all the time. Remember, polling is just a snapshot in time. In fact, it typically tells us where we were yesterday, not necessarily where we’re going tomorrow. Although when we track races over time, particularly in down ballot races in non-presidential, it’s pretty scary how accurate this stuff really can be. And caucuses are harder to measure as well was first and second round choice and all that. But polling is amazing. Um, and if used properly, can allow you to decisively defeat opponents and, uh, help shape up, shape, public policy and opinion. So tweet me at the Thomas guide and uh, we’ll catch you tomorrow on another episode of the Thomas guide.

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