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TGuide2.11pt 2.20_mixdown

Speaker 1: (00:00)
This is

Speaker 2: (00:01)
the Thomas guide your roadmap for navigating the world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is, but Thomas Guy with your host, John Thomas, New Hampshire, results are in and candidates are dropping like flies. You’re going to want to hear my take on New Hampshire and clone mentum was real. Will it be enough a tune for this episode of the Thomas Guy.

Speaker 1: (00:40)
Welcome back to a late night edition of the Thomas guide. Well, I was watching the returns come in in New Hampshire and as promised I’m going to break down not just what happened but why it happened. Kind of dig a little bit deeper, but before you do that, go to the T guy.com if you haven’t done it, subscribe to my email list. It’s free. You’re going to get all of this bonus to extra content plus a daily email when new episodes are released. So you’ll never miss an episode with a handy dandy guide associated like what’s in each podcast as well as, for instance, I’m going to be doing Fox and friends in just a couple of hours. Hopefully if you’re on the West coast, you’re sleeping. But if you’re not, you don’t have to worry about missing the hit because we’ll email it out. But only if you subscribe for free to my email list.

Speaker 1: (01:30)
So go to the T guide.com and do that right now. Okay. So what happened tonight in New Hampshire? Well, I hate to say it again, but no, st Thomas is on by your, I called it, uh, all of the, the, the candidate placement in order. I literally called verbatim earlier today, uh, one of my staff, uh, uh, and I were talking and we were giving each other’s predictions and well, I got it then that’s on. And how did I do it? Well, it’s really a combination of looking at polling averages, uh, watching races evolve, looking, being able to take in outside external factors, like be able to understand kind of what really generates momentum versus, you know, silly talking heads, pretending there’s momentum when there’s not actually momentum. I’m able to put in my crystal ball the calculus of who has, who spent what money and how did they spend it looking at their messaging, knowing what, what I think would resonate, whose lanes are overcrowded and put all of this into this calculated matrix in my brain and can make pretty good assumptions on what’s going to happen.

Speaker 1: (02:46)
And the other thing is, I’m going to talk about this on Fox and friends, uh, in a few hours, but the polling actually has been pretty good this cycle, particularly when it’s not a caucus state. Uh, polling was pretty good. What accounted for the [inaudible] for Amy Klobuchar and it was real. She, she surged to a third place. Well, it was the 40% of independence in the state of New Hampshire that can cast ballots in a democratic presidential primary. They broke decisively toward Amy because she had a good debate on Friday. Uh, so it was a combination of Warren kind of stagnating Biden falling off the map and Amy having a really good debate performance and uh, and she had some money. I think she raised a few million dollars out of Iowa, so she was able to, uh, and then she raised a little bit more after the debate. So she was able to push her message and enjoy and ride that wave of momentum.

Speaker 1: (03:48)
Now don’t over-hype the third place. Amy’s likely not to be the democratic nominee. What this hurt, this really is significant for a couple reasons. One, it means that Amy is going to stay in most likely until at least super Tuesday hurting the center left lane candidates more fragmenting the field, more perhaps allowing a Bernie Sanders who’s hovering in the high twenties, low thirties, to continue to rack up delegates and continue to be on top, perhaps allowing him to be the nominee or eventual nominee. It also is more immediately devastating to Joe Biden. Joe Biden slipped thi it was a diff fifth place. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I believe it was fifth that is devastating. Now, Biden’s been downplaying for weeks how he was going to do in the first two States that he wasn’t going to win it. I think he might’ve been able to survive if he didn’t win either state, although it would’ve been tough, but then to survive would have required him to come in a close second.

Speaker 1: (04:57)
Very, very close second in both States and probably when one of the two. These not only come in second, fourth and fifth place. I mean it’s devastating that crush a momentum loss and undermine undermining his fundamental narrative, which is he’s the guy who can win and be Trump. I suspect we’re going to see either he slips into second or a far weaker finish in South Carolina and he will just kind of drag into super Tuesday modeling the results only to get clobbered by a Bloomberg and his money. Would we go into super Tuesday and we’re already seeing cracks, not just to mention the fact that he’s losing in these first two States, but the core constituency that’s really bullied Biden for so many months has been African-Americans. He was holding about 50% of that block. But what we’re seeing in the latest Quinnipiac national is that he’s lost half of his African-American support.

Speaker 1: (06:02)
Now he’s sitting at 25% of the African American block nationally. The other half has gone to Bloomberg. So African-Americans, I don’t want to say are running to Bloomberg because as we talked about earlier in the day and the last podcast, Bloomberg has his own problems with that community. I just don’t think they’re aware of it yet. And they will be aware of it by the time this democratic nomination is over. So I don’t know that Bloomberg is able to hang on to the African American community or generate enthusiasm with the African American community, but he probably can steal enough from Joe Biden to kill him off. So, uh, the momentous of the cologne, mentum Hertz, Joe Biden the most. That’s really the story. And then the other one is, we’re not talking about her and that’s perhaps almost as devastating. Elizabeth Warren, she came in in a fourth place, finish tonight in New Hampshire.

Speaker 1: (07:01)
Not good. Uh, you need to meet, you need to have a top to finish Oregon, a first place finish and one of these early States to stay in this race. So, so what happens? Award? Well, she’s probably not the nominee. It’s, I think it’s pretty safe to say at this point. What happens with her nationally depends on the average, but 12 to 18% probably disproportionally goes to a Bernie Sanders when she drops. Now does she drop before super Tuesday possible? He’s got the money to continue on, but we also don’t know if it’s going to drive. She’s going to just spend, spend a broke hoping to have a better showing in Nevada or somewhere else, and then has nothing left for super Tuesday or if she’s going to play the long game here. We don’t know exactly how she’s going to spend her money. Um, but we do know that she doesn’t really believe in television advertising.

Speaker 1: (08:06)
She’s a big believer in digital only with television, just in the home stretch, which so far today has backfired on her. So if she drops soon, that should buoy Sanders to just dominate my PR. Well, I don’t know. I can’t make the prediction yet cause there’s so many factors. I know she wants, I feel pretty good. She won’t be the nominee, but when does she drop? We’ll see. Speaking of dropping quite a few candidates drop tonight. Andrew Yang. Buh-bye. Bennett. I know you probably didn’t even realize he’s still in the race, but he was buh-bye. Tom dire for a moment people thought he was going to drop, but his press people said, no, no, no, no, no. He’s absolutely 100% still in this race. And then they give the line, which is similar to Biden, which is 99.9% of African Americans still haven’t voted in America.

Speaker 1: (09:03)
And so that’s the real test of this election. Okay. So basically Stiers going all in on South Carolina hoping that he’ll do better, hoping for the demise. Uh, the, the, the falling apart of a Joe Biden that Stire can be buoyed coming out of South Carolina. And here’s the thing, Stire is going to run into a math problem on the delegate game later on, but right now he’s kind of dealing with expectations, ESL funding. So he can come, as long as he wants to keep stroking those checks, he can stay alive. All star has to do is come at a top to finish. If he does and he beats expectations, he’s perceives certainly in his own brain, but I think you’ll have some national momentum. It’ll help him do a little bit better going into super Tuesday. So he’s hoping that Biden falls apart, which is that he can come in at least in a top two and stay alive. But sire is a self funder. So he’s got, uh, some strength there, but he’s obviously nowhere near to the degree of self funding, uh, as a Bloomberg now, I’m sure. I know. So I actually do know some of the stars, uh, media strategists and they’re smart people and they’re likely, I know them well enough to know that the scenario they’re playing out is this.

Speaker 1: (10:24)
Biden falls apart. Stier gives an a top two maybe even win South Carolina. They call Stier the comeback kid because nobody even gave him a shot. I mean, he’s just a, he’s, Oh my God, the talk of the town, he can hold that, that ever important African-American block that is important in democratic primaries. Then he goes into super Tuesday. This comes at a time when Mike Bloomberg, who’s showering money everywhere, is having his own stop and frisk problems, which he is. And African Americans are looking for a home and they end up overwhelmingly choosing Stire because he has enough money to run ads to them and boom, this becomes a Stier versus Bernie fight. It’s on Stier bulldozes the rest of the field and there you have it. He wins. That’s an oversimplification, but that’s what they’re thinking.

Speaker 1: (11:24)
It’s a pretty slim path. Could happen. Not likely, but he could. And unlike a lot of these other candidates, Stire can just keep writing checks so he can play this theory out until literally there’s not another breath of air left in the room to see whether or not this could happen versus yang and others who might want to execute similar strategies. Simply can’t afford to keep the lights on anymore. That’s it. Two back to back losses in distant, almost last places for Andrew Yang and, and Bennett. That’s it. It’s the money’s cut off to their campaign that they’ve got nowhere to go. It’s not like they’re doing the honorable thing to bow out and consolidate around the field. No, that’s not it. It’s just they can’t afford, keep the lights on. Now where I want this, I think the conversation should be going and it’s not there yet.

Speaker 1: (12:12)
Oh well first let’s talk about P Buddha judge for a second. Mmm. He had a, he had a fairly close second finished place, um, tonight. And the question is, well, is he the real winner? Cause he technically leads in delegates. Not really. Bernie Sanders is the winner because he has more factors in his favor. One, he’s got a ton of money that’s not dependent even on traditional donors. Buddha judge is dependent, he has a lot of small donors, but he’s, he’s also in half at least dependent on wine cave. Billionaires as a, as Bernie likes to say it too, uh, Bernie’s coalition, we’ll stay with him from state to state. He, Bernie captures some African Americans, not enough, but some who do judge will do best in overwhelmingly white States. And when you look at where he is in the African American block, he’s anywhere between zero and 4%.

Speaker 1: (13:20)
That’s visible. So the, like I said on the podcast for the last couple of days, New Hampshire was a must Wednesday for P booty judge a second place won’t cut it and won’t do it. He needed to be the winner to be able to somehow whip up so much momentum that he could be the one that Barack Obama endorses. And he could be the one. It somehow miraculously convinces African Americans in mass to leave Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg and vote for Buddha judge. That’s what needed to happen. But only a first place finish could allow that scenario to play out. Well, it didn’t happen, but does that mean it’s over for Buddha judge? No. He’s had an impressive enough finish for the first two States. He’s going to get his coffers refilled, especially his Biden looks weaker and weaker. That Buddha judge will continue on until super Tuesday. But the problem when you look at who’s the front runner here for Buddha judge, okay, good.

Speaker 1: (14:18)
He had a pretty good showing in the first two States, but he’s gonna run into that African-American block juggernaut. It’s going to run into his lane being crowded in super Tuesday. He’s going to get slaughtered in South Carolina. And if you look at the national polls, not only did Bernie win tonight, but Bernie is number one nationally. Right now. He’s eclipsed even Joe Biden nationally. He’s well ahead of Bloomberg. Maybe that’ll change as Bloomberg continues to to grow, but for now, Bernie is dominant, number one, both in those two States and nationally. Bernie is the democratic front runner. Do not let anybody tell you otherwise at this point. He’s the front runner. Don’t talk about Amy, don’t talk about, Nope, Nope, Nope. Bernie’s the one to beat. Now you’re going to hear that Bernie’s ceiling. He’s got a high, what they call a high floor and a low ceiling.

Speaker 1: (15:15)
He’s got this base that will vote with him no matter what, but he can’t grow beyond 28. Well, this is where the conversation should be going, but people aren’t talking yet, which is, this is called second choice voters. This is the conversation you need to be having. When a candidate drops like Andrew Yang or Joe Biden, where do their votes scatter? Not a hundred percent of them, but disproportionally, where do they go? Yang, I saw a survey, uh, that said about 85% of yang supporters is 4% of the vote goes to Bernie Sanders. Makes intellectual sense. I’ve seen about 80, 70 to 80% of Elizabeth Warren’s voters will go to job, uh, to, um, Bernie Sanders. All right? So if you throw, let’s say Elizabeth, that averaging, let’s just give her 15%. You throw Yang’s half, maybe two to 3% of his 4% to Bernie. Bernie sitting anywhere from 28 to 30 right now. Oh, guess what Bernie Sanders is now at anywhere from conservatively 35% of the vote to 43%

Speaker 3: (16:33)
yeah,

Speaker 1: (16:34)
that’s lights out people. That’s it. Bernie becomes the nominee at that point. He’s unstoppable. So the second choice voters are really important and something that will even scare you a little bit more. Well, when Biden drops out, they’re going to, it’s going to go to a, it’s going to go to Mike Bloomberg or whoever the center left nominee is not necessarily the same surveys that I’ve been looking at for a second choice voters, at least as of today, upwards of 35% of Joe Biden voters say they are Bernie voters, 35% so what you could find is this scattershot of center left candidates they keep trucking on because they desperately want to be the one to take on Bernie. As Bernie continues to rack up, delegates continues to rack up delegates until it’s too late. That very, that scenario very well could happen. I’m not saying it will, but is not hard to see that it won’t.

Speaker 1: (17:34)
This whole scenario. I was just texting this, by the way, to a friend of mine who is a big Amy Kalama club, a char supporter. Uh, she’s Democrat. Uh, she loves Amy and, uh, uh, and I was texting her this because she’s can’t vote. She doesn’t like Trump, but you cannot vote for Bernie Sanders if he’s the nominee. And I was sharing with her, I gotta tell you, I’m not willing to definitively say it just yet, but this year feels a lot like the primary in 2016 with Donald Trump, or people are saying, I saw it on CNN tonight. Oh, well, you know, it was really the Electra progressive left that lost tonight because if you see the lane is just so much wider for the center left than it is for the ultra left. Well, that’s not incorrect. But if the ultra left is able to consolidate fast enough, which they are, that’s it. It allows Bernie to stay on top long enough while the field remains fracture because everybody is stuck in this prisoner’s dilemma where it would make sense if everybody just consolidate around one center left candidate and boom, you did that early enough, you could sack Bernie.

Speaker 1: (18:53)
But that’s what they said about Trump. If the fields is consolidated, everybody just got together and picked on Trump and then all dropped out and consolidated, Oh gee, Trump will be gone. Well that probably was true, but Trump had his base. He had enough resources to keep chugging. This base, didn’t leave him, and he bit by bit expanded the coalition and racked up the delegates until it was too late. And the other thing is, you know, you might hear this, the Dem establishment is scared to death a Bernie. And I think the more they start to cry, the more Bernie will actually grow. But you’re going to hear the establishment Dems on CNN and others. If you watch CNN complain saying the other candidates have a duty to all SAC, uh, get up, get up and beat, use their money to beat Bernie Sanders. Do they really?

Speaker 1: (19:51)
I actually don’t think they do it all. They have, they have a duty to win their primary. They have a duty to climb in the path that they see forward. And if you’re Amy Klobuchar, what good other than trying to become the anti Bernie does it, do they really meaningfully beat up Bernie and put money to try to tear him down because his folks don’t scatter to you. If you’re Amy, you’re better off picking on bead Buddha, judge. If you’re Biden, you’re better off picking up, picking off Amy and Pete, Buddha judge or Mike Bloomberg because the votes are probably going to scatter to you. So this whole, yeah, in theory, if everybody sacked on Bernie, he’d go away. But that’s just not how politics works. And the party doesn’t have that much control. I think they were jiggering with the rules. I mean, look, they’re already tilting the scale for Mike Bloomberg, by the way.

Speaker 1: (20:43)
I do find it pretty hilarious. As Biden falters the democratic party, which you could say one of their core animating platforms is that they are anti white, anti old, really against the big banks, the billionaires, the wall, a wall street, and the 1% quite possibly we’ll nominate the oldest, whitest, richest boring billionaire from wall street that this country has ever seen. Yup. It’s funny. It’s the hypocritical, uh, duh doublespeak here. Billionaires are bad. Unless they’re, they’re a billion, right? Billionaires are, are, are terrible. We need to ban big money from politics. What we’re doing, unless of course he buys TV ads to beat up on Donald Trump. Well, that’s okay. It’s a, anyway, it’s ironic. But, um, so those are my big takeaways. Bernie had a great night. Ooh, she had had a good, you just had a good night. Good enough night to stay alive, but probably not good, but not good enough to win him this nomination.

Speaker 1: (22:05)
Bernie is still the front runner. Do not let anybody tell you otherwise. The Bloomberg test is going to be fascinating as we go into super Tuesday. The, uh, South Carolina is not just Joe Biden’s firewall. It might just be Joe Biden’s lot last stand. We’ll see. So that’s what I’m watching. You’re up really late or really early. Catch me on Fox and friends this coming morning. I’ll post it on my YouTube channel and elsewhere. If you don’t catch it, we’ll send it out in my email blasts. If you go to the T guy.com sign up for my email. You’ll get it. Thanks so much for listening to the second episode, the late edition post New Hampshire primary episode of the Thomas guide. I’m having a great time in this season and you know, I do talk a lot of politics, no doubt about it. A lot of presidential politics. Yes I do.

Speaker 1: (22:59)
But anything that’s political that you have a question you want me to know or you want me to explain? Marketing political, um, choice of words doesn’t have to be presidential. I’m going to start [inaudible] in the show because first of all, everything’s political, but you know, why did the, why does, uh, why, why is Colin Kaepernick the spokesperson for Nike? Uh, despite him being anti-American, I can explain all of these things. There’s some method behind both. Most of the madness if there’s a, uh, uh, a big, uh, the corrosion. If you’re interested, I can talk about the politics and the public perceptions of coronavirus and we, we can go way deep into that stuff. But tweet me at the Thomas guide or write me Facebook if you have a question. You want me to get to it. Happy to do that. Thank you so much for listening. It really means a lot. Of course, if you want, you can read, uh, leave me a review on iTunes or wherever you listen. We’ll catch you tomorrow on a nother episode of the Thomas Guy.

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