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TGuide2.11.20_mixdown

Speaker 1: (00:00)
This is [inaudible]

Speaker 2: (00:02)
Thomas guide your roadmap for navigating the world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is Thomas Guy with your host John Thomas podcast. Right before New Hampshire voters has their ballots. Some other interesting things going on nationwide in this episode of the Thomas Guy.

Speaker 1: (00:40)
It’s New Hampshire. People are making major decisions, and this might be really seriously the beginning of the end for Joe Biden. Some could say it was an Iowa. I think that’s fair. He underperformed. But if he finishes tonight in fourth or fifth place is the CLO omentum of Amy Klobuchar eclipses Joe Biden. Bill. Boy. It’s not looking good for Joe Biden. And there’s some other data points that I do want to get into, uh, that are just really ugly for Joe Biden. First, a Quinnipiac, which has been a polling this race for the, throughout the cycle. Um, nationwide shows Sanders jumping out to his biggest lead. He’s at Sanders is a 25% Biden’s at 17 Bloomberg’s at 15. And everybody kind of below that. Um, remember back in before the Iowa caucuses, nationally on average, Joe Biden was sitting at 26%, Bernie Sanders at 21%, Bloomberg at eight. So it looks to be that the vacuum is being filled at this moment in time by Bloomberg.

Speaker 1: (01:56)
Now, I don’t, I think it’s going to take more for than just TV ads for Bloomberg to be the nominee. In fact, uh, if you’re Bernie Sanders, you want to run against the really rich billionaire. You want to do that. So, uh, there’s a good contest for Bernie. But what he hopes is that the field, much like in 2016 in the primary on the Republican side remains fractured in the mods or center lefts and other way, I think it’s funny that we put finding these people in the center left. They’re really not center left. They’re far left by most Americans standpoint, but it’s just the party has shifted so far left that associated with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Yeah. Uh, Bloomberg and these others do look quote, center left, but it’s all relative on the spectrum. But I digress. So, uh, here’s the most stunning thing in the Quinnipiac national poll.

Speaker 1: (02:55)
They, when you look down to the subgroups other than the ethnicity back in late January, here’s where Biden was with African percentage of the African American voting block. 52% Sanders at 15. Bloomberg at eight Buddha judge at zero. Okay, now hold, it just came out this week. Biden fallen by almost half from 52 to 27%. Bloomberg, it’s gone from eight to 22 Sanders is grown to 90, from 15 to nine boudou judge has grown from zero to four. So what does this tell us? Really? It’s the demise of Biden. That’s, it’s really the, the everybody says South Carolina says firewall. No African Americans are his firewall. And when he starts to lose those, that’s a serious, serious problem because he doesn’t do really well with any other demographic. So that’s very troubling. If you’re Joe Biden, it should be encouraging if you’re Bloomberg that Biden’s of orders are looking for a home, and so far they seem to be settling out with Bloomberg.

Speaker 1: (04:02)
And again, poor Pete, Buddha, judge part-time Pete, he’s grown from zero to four, but you’re not going to go from four to 20, 30, 40, 50% before super Tuesday. That’s unlikely to occur even if he has a good, good, a strong first place finish in New Hampshire. So, um, the bigger cause for concern here is if you’re Joe Biden, I mean, really, really bad stuff by nose is going to be ugly tonight. That’s why he’s even skipping his own victory party. He’s already left for South Carolina because he’s trying, he knows he’s going to get demolished, but he doesn’t know how bad, but he knows he’s not going to be able to spin his way out of this one tonight. So what’s he doing? He’s already telling people, Oh, don’t worry about that. I always knew I would underperform. No big deal. I’m already onto my firewall. Well, will it be his firewall?

Speaker 1: (04:56)
We’ll tell. We’ll know, but as soon enough, but at this rate, it doesn’t look great for him in South Carolina. Another poll that I’m looking, uh, that I’m looking at that, uh, it’s pretty, pretty stunning, is, uh, the Capitol weekly publication does a, a weekly presidential tracking poll, the methodologies. All right. Uh, it’s 846 43 respondents on average per week. And really what you look at here is movement over time, looking for, um, looking for swings up or down and the directional, uh, split or the split between, um, between candidates. Here’s where we’re at. It’s pretty stunning. Uh, Bernie Sanders at 29%. He’s moved up 4% since last week. Elizabeth Warren at 16. She’s an ex close as acts 16. Pete Buddha judge, 14%. Michael Bloomberg, thirt teen percent, Joe Biden 11, Amy global HR five, and so on and so forth. Tom Stier in his home state at three. This is a big deal for Bernie.

Speaker 1: (06:11)
He’s almost at the 30% threshold in California. I predict to be has a big night tonight. He’ll crack the 30, uh, 30%. Um, he’ll crack the 30% in California, which remember, California is proportional by congressional district. Uh, so you can win. You can still walk away with delegates. If you’re Elizabeth Warren and you can, and you can win some congressional districts, you can still go home with delegates. But, uh, it’s just stunning to see how well Bernie Sanders is doing in this survey and how poorly, how poorly Joe Biden is doing it. 11%. Now. There’s still time. If he pulls a rabbit out of a hat in South Carolina, he might have an argument there, but I just don’t see it. I don’t see it. Um, so what am I watching for in New Hampshire? By the way? Today’s podcast is going to be fairly brief, got a bunch of work to do and I’m going to do another episode late tonight post New Hampshire.

Speaker 1: (07:11)
So sorry for the short podcast, but we’ll give you double the dose of the Thomas guide today. Uh, what am I watching? Uh, one, uh, does Sanders when and by how much? Second is Buddha judge, uh, easy able to when first place? This is a must win state. He cannot afford to come in second place in this state. So can he do that? It looked like, uh, the momentum really was for Clover char CLO mentum but there’s just not enough time for her to grow from where she is to from where she was to where she needs to be to win this state. Uh, it looks like Bernie just has an insurmountable lead, but Hey, things are moving very, very quickly. We’ll see. Um, so if what happens, if Klobuchar wins New Hampshire, then she become the democratic nominee. You probably not have closure when newH w when’s New Hampshire?

Speaker 1: (08:08)
Bernie Sanders, as long as he comes in a very, very close second, still has a darn good shot to the nomination because the ma center left. People are going to be arguing amongst themselves cause Klobuchar isn’t going to drop out by super Tuesday. So really what I’m watching mostly though is how poorly does Joe Biden do? That’s what I’m looking at. Does he get eclipse by Klobuchar? If he does, I think there’s a decent shot that his firewall crumbles in South Carolina. All right. Another story relating to a key, a block, a block in the democratic party is African Americans. And some video just emerged of Bloomberg in 2015 talking about stop and frisk. Amazing. Uh, he’s defending it here yet. He says he’s now evolved on the issue just a few years later, coincidentally when he’s running for national office. Now, why is this story coming out? Well, I think it’s safe to say that as you start picking up momentum, other people want to take shots at you.

Speaker 1: (09:13)
So this was probably planted by an opponent, uh, in a, in a media source and it’s caught fire. I, the, the clip is very quiet. Um, so I’m just going to, uh, I’m going to read it to you here. He was at a, uh, this is back in 2015. Bloomberg was a panelist, Mmm. In Aspen. And I’ll read you what he said. Mmm. He says, 95% of murderers and murder victims are minorities. You can take, you can just take the descriptions, Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male. I know. Ortiz 16 to 25. And then he goes on, uh, talking about this is why stop at forest work because this is what criminals look like. You can’t say that in a democratic primary. You just simply cannot say that. Um, and it really calls into question of houses. See, just a few years later when Bloomberg evolved on the issue and apologizes for it, how’s this here really?

Speaker 1: (10:22)
Was he, when he made that apology? Well, I’ve got news for you. He wasn’t sincere at all. I could, I could smell it. It wasn’t sincere. He’s doing what he needs to do to win a democratic primary. So Bloomberg is going to have to answer for this. He’s going to have to answer that. He stood on the GOP convention floor, I think it was in 2004 giving a speech. Our advocating for George W. Bush. I mean, there are things that are going to be very challenging for him to get through. A primary. Bloomberg is hoping that he can run out the clock and do let his ads do the talking. And that’s partly why he’s playing so late in the game, is he? He was hoping that he didn’t really have to answer a lot of questions until he officially entered on super Tuesday and then the clock would be run out.

Speaker 1: (11:10)
So this is problematic. If you are Bloomberg, this is a real challenge. It’ll be interesting to see how he, does he duck and high? Does he give another speech? Does he do a sit down on good morning America? What does he do to answer for his position change? So those are the things I’m watching. Of course you can tweet me all night at the Thomas guide, go to the T guide.com subscribe to my email list. It’s free. You’ll get all the latest updates. I’m going to be posting up. I did a Fox business, uh, news clip, I think it was yesterday where we argue, I argue with the democratic strategist who also is a Bloomberg senior advisor, but, uh, how they talking about how the Democrats are gonna have a hard time messaging against the economy and against Trump on that issue. So, um, you’re gonna want to hear that. That’ll be in my email blast, but only if you subscribe. It’s free to the email@thetguy.com. Thanks so much for listening. Enjoy New Hampshire, and we’ll catch you on the other side.

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