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Speaker 1: (00:00)
This is

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the Thomas guide your roadmap for navigating a world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is the Thomas guide with your host, John Thomas. My reaction and analysis in the debate, New Hampshire whose app was down as we approach election day and everybody’s pulling the Obama card, will it matter that more this episode, the Thomas guide.

Speaker 1: (00:44)
Welcome back. I hope you had a good weekend. We’re in for a another episode of the Thomas guide. I know some of you were grumpy. I received some messages that I did not do a podcast right after the debate in New Hampshire on Friday night. Well, I try to do the podcast best I can Monday through Friday, but you guys gotta give me a break occasionally. So I took my break. I did watch the debate of course, but I saved my vocal chords because I knew we’d have a long upcoming week the following week, so fear not. We’re going to get into my reactions in the debate and a lot’s going on. Of course new Hampshire’s coming up. The race is for president, really is shifting and there are a lot of subplots happening that I’m going to unpack in today’s podcast. And what I will do is on Tuesday night when New Hampshire votes, hopefully, uh, we’ll, we’ll know the results that night.

Speaker 1: (01:49)
I suspect we will. It’s not like Iowa where they’re still unpacking it. Bernie Sanders, uh, as of today has called for a recount. Um, so, Oh, Iowa. Um, but I will do my best to do a podcast as the results come in and we have good sense of it. Now try to cut me some Slack. I uh, I’ll be doing a, let’s see, I think I’ve booked as of now for 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM Pacific hits on Fox news Wednesday morning. So I will do a podcast and I’ll catch a couple of winks, a couple Zs and then I’ll head over to the television studios to give my reaction. But um, it’s going to be a busy week. Exciting week. I love as this cycle starts to take shape only just a few weeks away from super Tuesday. And no stir. Thomas seems to be pretty accurate up to this point, so I don’t want to jinx it.

Speaker 1: (02:58)
But, uh, I think my, I think my crystal balls working just fine this cycle. Okay. Let’s start out with the debate. Uh, I don’t think this debate really fundamentally changed anything, any trajectory in the race. A lot of people are saying that Klobuchar had a great night. I think this was, I think that’s fair. I think this was her best debate yet, but honestly, she’s been having several good debates in a row and it hasn’t changed diddly in the race. So the question more broadly is, do debates matter? So far they really haven’t changed much, uh, in the race for president debates matter. I think in, in as much as there’s a giant moment that spins the news cycle for the following week, debates can matter. There was nothing that came out of this New Hampshire debate that I think was spinning the news cycle over the weekend, uh, nationally and in New Hampshire to change their trajectory.

Speaker 1: (04:02)
I thought Sanders showed the most discipline out of any of the candidates. Uh, he did exactly what he needed to do in that debate. I think Sanders articulates his positions on policies the best out of any of the candidates. A booty judge sounds long winded, uh, and a bit profess Sorial when he talks again, Clover char, her challenge is, let’s say she had a stellar debate, which I think it was good. I don’t know if it was knock them down stellar, but she’s coming from so far behind in a polling position that she would, there’s not enough time to close the gap. So that’s partially what we look at when we look at polling. And I’ll get into the latest polling tracking polling that’s reliable out of New Hampshire, but it’s, it’s typically unlikely that somebody would go hypothetically, let’s say they need to go, well, let’s back it up.

Speaker 1: (05:02)
Let’s use a governor’s race for example. Let’s say we do a tracking poll or some, some kind of reliable poll, and we see that the candidate we’re chasing is sitting at 20, let’s say 30%. And let’s say my candidates sitting at 7%. Well, the problem is to change too. Get to where we need to go. We have to grow by, well in this case it would be well over 20 points, 23 points. We want to chase them at 30 at 30% so you can’t just like pop overnight and go to and grow to 30% that typically doesn’t happen, especially when you go, okay, I’m going to have to use paid advertising to accelerate the trend lines and the growth. Uh, advertising in general is how you do that. In a presidential case, you could say it would be the news cycle. So if you dominated news cycle, perhaps you could use that as a akin to paid advertising there simply when your club a char and my, I have a lot of friends who are self-described moderate Democrats who love a, and they keep waiting, they call it CLO mentum is the Clementon finally here, is she going to win?

Speaker 1: (06:16)
No, no. I think she’s going to have a much better than expected night in New Hampshire. And the ramifications for her actually are less than the ramifications for Joe Biden. We’ll get into that in a second. But there just simply isn’t enough runway in New Hampshire. Given Amy’s positioning for her to come in a top place finish, there just isn’t. Now, could she grow by five or 10 points? Oh, for sure. But that’s not enough to get her to eclipse a Bernie Sanders. So what was my takeaway from the bate debate? Well, debate on a Friday night, lots of people are out. The nation isn’t necessarily engaged, but one could argue, well the nation doesn’t have to be engaged just the folks in New Hampshire. Okay, fair point. But I didn’t see anything that was fundamentally game changing. And more broadly the challenge, the other candidates that are non Sanders have right now is putting in perspective.

Speaker 1: (07:21)
Ernie Sanders got bludgeoned with over $800,000 of TV attack ads in the homestretch in Iowa. So far, not one anti sander spot is aired in the state of New Hampshire. And why? It’s because most candidates have, uh, given up there other than perhaps Buddha judge, they’ve really given up their competitive position in New Hampshire, seeding it to a Sanders. So what I saw in debate on the debate stage was the, um, the center lefts are our candidates arguing amongst themselves, really giving Bernie a clear lane, a clear pass all the way to win New Hampshire. So I don’t, I don’t see anything that fundamentally changed coming out of that debate. If I look back at all of the debates thus far, the biggest moment of the debate was Camila Harris’s moment where she attacked Joe Biden about busing and said that little girl was me. That was the gasp moment. And quite frankly, it probably allowed Elizabeth a common law Harris to stay alive several months longer than she should have because she had a spike in fundraising and in press bounce.

Speaker 1: (08:46)
But that wasn’t even enough to change the trajectory of the race and overcome a dud candidate. She needed to actually hit all of her marks properly. She kept failing and failing, um, on her policy positions and staff decisions and all those other things that, that sunk her, even though she clearly debate did provide her a, a boost of momentum. I didn’t see anything like that. The person I thought was the biggest loser on Friday was Joe Biden. I thought he had a terrible night. Um, it just, it nothing rang true to me. I, there was nothing that was truly compelling. And you can see he was even positioning that he wasn’t going to win New Hampshire. That’s never a good space with, for, for you to be when you’re coming off of a loss in one state and having to say, yeah, but you know, what about South Carolina?

Speaker 1: (09:36)
What about South Carolina? Whoa, he’s putting a lot of pressure on South Carolina. If he doesn’t, not just place first, but if he doesn’t have a, a dominant first position in South Carolina, he’s toast. Now we’re going to get into some of the Biden ads and all of this in a second cause I, there’s some fascinating things that are happening right now. But one of the things I noticed, it was hilarious when I S I watched the spin room after the debate and there was a stackup done of Elizabeth Warren aunt on, uh, after the debate in the spin room. One was talking to MSNBC and the other, it was both Elizabeth Warren talking to C a to CNN and she delivered exactly the same talking points with exactly the same cadence in exactly the same order. It’s really stunning. I don’t, it just speaks to her message discipline and she’s actually pretty good at pretending like this is her first time delivering, delivering it. Let’s, uh, let’s roll the clip and then we’ll analyze

Speaker 3: (10:42)
free college. And it was exactly three years ago, two nights that college [inaudible] for reading a statement from [inaudible] racist for being domination to be attorney general kind of stays and fats will toddle women who have gone t-shirts have they bordered on Pelosis have had tached our very bodies. Nevertheless, she persisted through a lot of people. I nailed there a whole lot of folks around the country really that this race against Donald Trump maybe unwinnable. I’ve been fighting my first unwinnable, pretty much old one. My wife dividing an agency, consumer tech kept fighting. I got the CEO Fargo held accountable. And by the way, I got pretty fired and biting back to take a Senate seat from [inaudible] Republic, Republic Hill. I think this all comes down to when ability [inaudible] count. I don’t know if it’s race being winnable, you get them. I don’t know if she can win and you know, here’s how I, then that’s when [inaudible] we have persist and then we win and that’s how I’m going to be the first president, woman president.

Speaker 1: (12:12)
I hope that didn’t make you dizzy. And here’s the amazing thing about that clip. It wasn’t one clip wasn’t sped up or slow down, slowed down two to match. It was real time airing and just gives you a sense of how this process becomes so rote. These candidates, they have their talking points and they just over it over and over and over. You may remember that Marco Rubio has got so good at it in 2016 that he did it while he, in about a minute apart while he was on the debate stage and his opponents called him out on it. He was, he became so robotic doing that. Tom STI or I felt like he was doing that on Friday night during the debate as well. He was desperately trying to drive the message that we dissected. He’s running his ad campaign about how he’s the only one that can beat Trump on the economy.

Speaker 1: (13:04)
You know, he’s the only one with credibility on the economy. Well, I would say Bloomberg also has credibility on the economy, but um, uh, Stier kept just going back to it and going back to it because he was trying his best to say, okay, it’s not people who are watching this debate. It’s the news clips after this debate. That’s what I’m trying to force feed down the reporters throats. They have no choice but to cover the one thing I said all night, which is I’m the, I’m the only one who can be Donald Trump and beat him on the economy. So this repetitive nature kind of cracks me up. Um, uh, because candidates are there, she’s doing her job. But if you’re listening, you go, wait a second. Does she actually have an original thought or is it just the same thing? Regurgitated? It’s pretty much the same thing regurgitated and that’s proper because your average voter isn’t tuning into the Thomas guide.

Speaker 1: (14:09)
They aren’t watching multiple networks at the same time. So if you, you would need to say the same thing multiple times to catch a voter, whether they’re reading a clip in a newspaper or watching you on MSNBC or reading about you in a blog, you need to drive a message so you have to say the same thing over, over, over and over. Normally it doesn’t catch up to a candidate because there’s not that much media coverage, but when you’re, or if there is, it’s in a high profile Senate race in the homestretch, so it’s not that big of a deal. You want that repetition. But in the race for president, there’s so much media coverage that it’s just almost gets sickening that if you’re tuned in and engaged, you hear the same stuff over and over and over. I always think the Mark of an amazing candidate is the one who’s able to basically make it seem like it’s the first time they’ve ever said something, even though it’s the 10,000 time that they said something, Elizabeth does an okay job at that.

Speaker 1: (15:09)
She punches it up, but it’s exactly the same punch every single time. Same delivery, same style over and [inaudible] okay. Over again so that you would enjoy that. Okay. Moving along, Joe Biden, we’ve talked about that he’s going negative because he is attacking up. He is poised to have a miserable finish in New Hampshire and we’ll get to the polls that a little bit so don’t worry. But he launched a negative ad. It was a digital ad, long ad, but we’ll play it cause it’s, it’s worthwhile goes negative on P Buddha judge or his experience and record on race-related African-Americans. So, um, this idea is essentially a Republican attack of the Republicans call the mayor part-time Pete. And then it’s an in essence to highlight how inexperienced he really is and how he really has never made any major decisions. Well, Joe Biden seems to agree with that in this latest attack ad. Listen to this spot. It’s, it’s uh, it’s actually pretty clever in how it’s done.

Speaker 3: (16:22)
Barack Obama called Joe Biden, but Pete Buddha judge doesn’t think much of the vice president’s record. Let’s compare when president Obama called on him, Joe Biden helped lead the passage of the affordable care act, which gave healthcare to 20 million people. And when park goers called on Pete Buddha judge, he installed decorative lights under bridges, giving citizens of South bend, colorfully illuminated rivers. Vice president Biden and former mayor Buddha judge have taken on tough fights under threat of a nuclear Iran. Joe Biden helped to negotiate the Iran deal and under threat of disappearing pets, Buddha judge negotiated later licensing regulations on pet chip scanners. Both vice president Biden and former mayor Pete have helped shape our economy. Joe Biden helps save the auto industry, which revitalize the economy of the Midwest and led the passage and implementation of the recovery, saving our economy from a depression. And Pete Buddha judge revitalize the sidewalks of downtown South bend by laying out decorative brick. And both Biden and Buddha judge have made hard decisions despite pressure from the NRA. Joe Biden passed the assault weapons ban through Congress. Then he passed the violence against women act. And even when public pressure mounted against him, former mayor Pete fired the first African American police chief of South bend and then he forced out the African-American fire chief to we’re electing president and what you’ve done matters.

Speaker 1: (17:56)
Hey, I think decorative brick is pretty important. How dare Joe Biden tag the booted edge for focusing on what matters like decorative brick. It was a clever ad, uh, to really highlight the contrast, uh, an experience between the two candidates. And, and it really is, I mean, to be Buddha judge is a slick talker. I think actually it’s too slick to his detriment. But, uh, the experience is nine day feed. Buena judge represents the city of South bend that’s smaller than the city of Burbank out here. Uh, and no offense to the representation in Burbank, but they ain’t ready to be president United States. Um, so it’s, it’s funny, but it also underscores how seriously Joe Biden is taking a pee budaj edge in Biden’s slippage in the polls. Speaking of slippage, bye. Attacked. I remember a few weeks back in Iowa, there was a decently hostile questioner of, of Joe Biden is a Democrat who didn’t like Joe Biden and question about Hunter Biden and he called the questioner bat, um, and started basically attacking him and told him to get outta here kind of thing.

Speaker 1: (19:22)
Uh, it’s in this [inaudible] case, Biden attacks a questioner and calls a woman dog faced. Yes, dog faced. I’ll play the clip, I’ll lift the audio levels so you can hear it better. Cause it was pretty quiet. The clip I originally pulled. But what’s interesting about Biden, and I was thinking about this as I was watching the clip, Biden I believe is at his best when he’s righteously indignant. When he stands up and speaks like a regular person and fights for what he believes. And just, you know, if, if Warren or Sanders are talking about their health care plan, it’s not that scary and it isn’t taking control of your lives. And limiting your choices for Biden to look at you and go, Hey man, just be real. That’s completely a lie. That’s just a lie or some VR variety of that. I actually think that’s when Biden comes off as likable. Uh, you can connect with him. He doesn’t sound like a politician. So on the one hand, that’s one of his greatest strengths. On the other hand, it’s a, it’s dangerous because he can overreact like he did with this woman calling her dog, faced in a woke democratic primary. That ain’t right. Let’s roll the clip and you can be the judge. Hi, my name is Madison and I’m an econ student and Mercer university and

Speaker 4: (20:48)
Oh, awesome. Um, so I’m going to be a little bit so [inaudible] um, so you’re arguably the greatest advantage in this race. You’ve been to vice president. You weren’t burdened down by the impeachment trials. So in the participation, so how do you explain the performance in Iowa and why should the voters believe that you can win the national election?

Speaker 5: (21:21)
Good question. Number one, I was a democratic caucus. There’ve been no caucus. No you haven’t. You’re aligned dog face, Tony soldier, you said you are, but now you gotta be honest. I’m going to be honest with you. It was a little bit confusing in Iowa, number one, but let’s assume it was all, everything was exactly right in Iowa. The idea that you come in with about half the camp, half the delegates that the leaders came in with and Iowa is not necessarily say, how are you going to win Pennsylvania? Are you gonna win Michigan? We’re, by the way, the, the black caucus, the Michigan legislature just endorsed me in spite of all of this where unions have endorsed me in spite of all this, et cetera. You can’t win. You can’t win.

Speaker 1: (22:13)
You’re a lying dog faced how many soldier? Not exactly sure what that last half means, but I do know a dog face means and that ain’t good for Joe Biden because he is going to deal with that. That is going to be this week’s beginning news cycle. Joe Biden’s only lucky that we have an election coming up on Tuesday and people won’t be focusing on that. That quote for the full week, there’ll be focusing on at least for 24 hours, but a dog faced dog faced pony soldier. I, it’s, it’s just, it’s bizarre and an insult. And it, it also underscores just out of how out of touch T touch he is with the modern, uh, PC police. You can’t say, you cannot, maybe maybe you can call an old white guy fat even that you really can’t. And it’s the mainstream media letting Joe Biden get away with it. But you cannot attack a woman in a democratic primary and call her dog faced.

Speaker 1: (23:26)
There will be repercussions from that, especially because Joe people smelled blood by his on the, uh, he’s on the fence, he’s on the Fritz total mistake dog faced. Oh my God. I just, it’s uh, it’s, it’s, it’s pretty, pretty amazing. Uh, and leave it to Biden, uh, for him to, uh, Tim to blow it. Now he, you saw him try to pivot, use his smarts to pivot to, yeah. You know, I was a caucus. Don’t pay attention to it. It’s really about other States I can win. The problem is again, if your, if your fundamental pitch is that a viability you gotta win and how many losses can you endure telling people about how you’re going to be winning so much about how you’re so electable when you’re getting your butt handed you right now. So that story falls flat, especially if Joe Biden gets blown out in New Hampshire.

Speaker 1: (24:36)
Now let’s get to the polls because there’ve been several polls over the weekend. The latest one that I liked is a, uh, Suffolk university. Boston globe poll came in late Sunday night. This is the Suffolk Boston global goes at once a day and we’ve seen a kind of shake out as a really where things are settling out. Sunday night, Bernie Sanders is at 27%. Buddha judge in 19% Klobuchar at 14%. She shot up five points, actually more than seven points since the debate. Warren is down, uh, a point at 12% iden is it 12% and so on and so forth. Looking at Clover char eclipsing Joe Biden wholly moly. That is a serious problem for Joe Biden. Good for club char. She’ll have her brief moment in the sun and won’t last, but she may. Perhaps she survives till super Tuesday and then drops, but more devastatingly is where Biden’s coming in. He could be, he’s placed in this tracking survey at fifth [inaudible] fifth place.

Speaker 1: (26:00)
That is such a weak finish that it’s possible that this eats into Joe Biden’s firewall and slows his momentum up, perhaps even bumping him into a close second place. South Carolina. Now I’m mix. I don’t exactly know what’s going to happen in South Carolina. I do know that Joe Biden is truly popular with evangelical blacks. That is true. That’s remained the case, but suffering so deeply coming off of massive losses off of the first two States that might, that might hurt him just making to go to second place. Now I’m not making the prediction so I don’t want to hear it on Twitter. Oh John, you’re said Joe Biden’s not going to talk, you know, finish versus South Carolina. The answer is I don’t know, but it’s possible that he does slip into a second place if he has such a blowout loss in New Hampshire. Now there is something I do want to go through.

Speaker 1: (27:02)
Uh, I pulled this quote I like, yet, well here was the gist of it. I read a, a New York times piece that was written about 2020, but it was written after, I think it was written in 2017, 2018 and it was from a senior Sanders advi advisor. I think it was, uh, Jeff Weaver was being quoted and he was basically making a similar argument to what we saw in 2016 with Trump in the primary, which is Sanders has a hardcore base of 25%. Um, and that those people will not leave him for anything. Allowing Sanders to dominate a, a to grab a strict plurality in the early States, allowing him to capture first place in most of the important States. And the question was, if war, if a warn enters the race, she is like a Bernie light, she’s going to capture a certain percent. So they are watching that and they were assuming that when Elizabeth drops out of the race, that allows Bernie to eclipse the 30% threshold.

Speaker 1: (28:18)
And even if she does, even if she waits till the end, depending on what the field looks like, it may be so fractured amongst all other lanes, allowing Bernie to never be eclipsed. They also went on to say they speculated about a Bloomberg candidacy. This is back in 2017 saying they welcome that stackup because they want to run against the rich billionaire. But look, their take is not wrong. We might, if Bernie Sanders is the nominee, that’s probably what, what the, now the postmortem analysis will be, is it Bernie had an uninterrupted lane and the rest of the field was too fractured for too long. Now one could say, well why doesn’t everybody just attack Bernie? Well, they could, but why? What does that get them? No, I know they want to be the Bernie and then somebody else fights. So maybe that’s good for them in the longterm where they want to be, but X, but putting out oxygen, putting out, uh, paid media spend attacking Bernie for what his votes aren’t going to fall from him and they’re definitely not going to fall from to you.

Speaker 1: (29:26)
So if you’re the other candidate, yeah, I guess if everybody ganged up on on Sanders, he would fall. But it’s the classic prisoner’s dilemma. It’s exactly what happened in 2016 to Trump. It wasn’t jabs responsibility in 2016 to attack with his millions and millions of dollars to attack Donald Trump because Donald Trump’s voters didn’t want Jeb. They weren’t going to fall to Jeb. So Don jab decided to go nuclear on Marco, which ended up taking out Marco or slowing his growth. But Jeff really had no pathway forward for himself, but he tried his best with his a hundred million bucks ended up being a waste of time. But that’s what you’re seeing in this primary two. Perhaps they could all gang up on Sanders, but why right now, Biden is smarter to rip, to stop Buddha judge and a number one, those votes probably scatter to Joe Biden rather than Joe Biden picking on Bernie Sanders.

Speaker 1: (30:29)
They’re not in the same lane. It doesn’t make any sense. So we’ll see. But if, if Biden doesn’t have a good finish and South Carolina is over, it’s done. It’s finished. He may not even live to super Tuesday and then this becomes very transparently a Bernie Bloomberg fight. That’s where this settles out at. But again, we’ll know South Carolina will tell us that. Well Nevada quite frankly will tell us a lot as well. So is we’re going to hear this buzz after New Hampshire. What about Klobuchar? What about Klobuchar? She’s happy. She might have a moment if she does in fact get to third place, but she’s not going the distance I J I just don’t see it. She doesn’t have the funding. Um, I just don’t, I don’t see her going the distance here. Now Sanders is he absolutely going to win New Hampshire. I give him a good hat tip, but he’s sitting in a place where yes, he’s beyond the margin of error.

Speaker 1: (31:30)
A Buddha judge. But there’s time, boy, there’s, there’s 24 hours. Things could shift around. The lead is not insurmountable in New Hampshire. He could be a clips. I don’t think so. But he could be. So I’m not willing to just call it one and done. If Bernie Sanders, so this is another thing, Sanders is getting a pass because all the moderates are just arguing amongst themselves, right? Because they realized why getting a Bernie Sanders lane, which gives Bernie a pass. At what point are people going to wake up and go, Bernie’s the guy I’ve got to beat probably might not be until it’s too late. All right, moving along. Got a couple more things to get to. The, all of the top candidates except for Bernie are playing the Obama card. Warren Bloomberg and Biden have all launched ads recently playing the Obama card. And of course I grabbed the ads.

Speaker 1: (32:27)
So let’s first roll Elizabeth Warren ad. And what’s interesting to know is number one, I would say this hurts Joe Biden the most, but also Obama’s of uh, of incredibly popular figure in a democratic primary. So the candidates are smart to use it and buy new. May remember, I’m going to play the ad again, but Biden launched this Obama ad where he took a speech, uh, where I think Obama was giving, uh, an award years ago to Joe Biden and he turned it into an ad. And the Obama people didn’t slap Joe Biden or misconstruing his support cause it could happen. So now you see all the other candidates doing it and I guarantee you they didn’t get permission from Ababa, but they also gathered that the juice was worth the squeeze here to use Barack Obama’s words to help their own candidacies. Okay, let’s roll the Elizabeth Warren ad.

Speaker 6: (33:25)
She’s a janitor’s daughter who has become one of the country’s fiercest advocates for the middle class. She came up with an idea for a new independent agency standing up for consumers and middle class families. She’s done it while facing some very tough opposition. Unfortunately, she’s very tough. Elizabeth understands what I strongly believe that a strong growing economy begins with a strong and thriving middle-class. I’m Elizabeth Warren and I approve this message.

Speaker 1: (33:55)
Okay, good. Add a biography based, which I really argue that Elizabeth par, well, she screwed up on her Medicare for all plan. She couldn’t defend it. That’s really where she went downhill. But I also think she went downhill by not advertising early on biography. Um, in fact, you may recall I did a podcast on the dueling philosophies between the managers, a chief strategists that used to work on Obama’s campaign. One worked for Buddha judge and believes in traditional television advertising. One worked for Elizabeth or works for Elizabeth Warren as her chief strategist and believes in digital advertising. Both, uh, well the Warren person still likes TV but only in the homestretch booted judge. Spent millions early, early on to try to build a brand and define himself and look, there’s more to it than just paid advertising. I get that. But so far the TV early strategy seems to have paid off Buddha, judge one Iowa people. So, uh, look, I’m not saying TV’s the end all be all, but it is how you frame a race, how you define yourself and define your opponents. And if you do it early, uh, you can set the tone for your campaign. I don’t think, I just think Elizabeth was way late in talking about what Barack Obama just described in the ad. Good ad. Very good ad, too late to air, not going to save her bacon. All right. Let’s get into the Bloomberg Obama ad.

Speaker 6: (35:34)
He’s been a leader throughout the country for the past years. Mr. Michael Bloomberg is here. Leadership in action. Mayor Denberg and president Obama work together in the fight for gun safety laws to improve education and to develop innovative ways to help teens gain the skills needed to find good jobs at a time when Washington is divided and old ideological battles. He shows us what can be achieved when we bring people together to seek pragmatic solutions.

Speaker 1: (36:01)
I’m Mike Blumberg and I approve this message. This is less of a good ad than the Elizabeth Warren ad, but you see that they were just trying to pull the Obama card here because they didn’t really have him seeing, he wasn’t on message. He wasn’t fully on message. They want, obviously they Bloomberg wants to talk about guns. Let’s talk about Trump when he can. Annie wants to talk about pragmatic solutions, which is he’s the guy who can, Mike can get it done, which is their tag. So they had the third party voiceover guy kind of tie this spot together. They said, okay, we’ve got this Obama clip where it says Mike Bloomberg that he’s a leader. Got it. And then he says pragmatic solutions, but he’s missing the actual core message of the issue movers that we’re trying to drive. So I’d give it a B, a B rating. It’s good whenever you can pull the Obama card in a primary.

Speaker 1: (36:57)
So there you go. Bloomberg has so much money. In fact, he’s just eclipse a $300 million Mark in terms of ad spend already. He’s already spent three over $300 million is 324 actually, he’s on his way to $1 billion. So in the message arc of what he has to deploy, this is but one of many, he doesn’t need the silver bullet where you look at most of these other presidential campaigns and they have more than one ad, but they have to be, they can’t afford to not knock it out of the park. So what’s interesting about the Bloomberg team, and they have this digital company called hoc fish, it bloomers paying to start up with digital strategists and analytics directors. And I guarantee you what they’re doing right now is every time they roll an ad, they’re doing analytics packages, polling packages, measuring search traffic and ad recall rates with online focused or online panels to figure out what ads are working, what parts of the ads are working, what’s moving numbers, what’s not.

Speaker 1: (38:04)
They’re beta testing, uh, all of this in real time as we go on because they can afford to run an ad for a day or two and yank it or add more cow bell. They just have so or put something else in rotation. They just have so much flexibility because of paid media. But yet I don’t know that it will be enough to get him the nomination, but it certainly does give you a tremendous leg up with all of the bells and whistles, uh, that, uh, that your average campaign, even a presidential campaign has to make very hard choices, even though it does make sense to do all of these bells and whistles. But if these bells and whistles costs you 60% of your budget, well maybe only do half of the bells and whistles or a quarter of the bells and whistles because you’ve got gotta just at the end of the day, you’ve got to put spend out there.

Speaker 1: (39:00)
You’ve got to get the ad heard. So yes, uh, if you’re Toyota, you can afford all of these things, but uh, if you’ve only got, you know, if you’ve got an extra million bucks, you better put nah, you know, 90% of that on television and not 50% of it. Okay. Last ad, just to refresh your memory, I do want to play the Obama Biden ad, which is a very good at, it’s a 62nd piece, so that’s expensive, but I think it is a good ad in sums up Biden quite well. Obama speech writers wrote this well and they used very powerful imagery of Joe. But again, not enough so far. We may see differently in South Carolina. So far, not enough. All right, let’s roll the ad.

Speaker 6: (39:47)
We all know that on its own, his work does not capture the full measure of Joe Biden. Folks don’t just feel like they know Joe, the politician. They feel like they know the person. When Joe sticks up for the little guy, we hear the young boy. We used to stand in front of the mirror determined to vanquish a debilitating stutter. Joe talks to auto workers whose livelihoods he upstate. We hear the son of a man who wants lost his job. When Joe talks about hope and opportunity for our children, we are the father who rode the rails home every night so he could be there to tuck his kids into bed. When Joe talks to gold star families who’ve lost a hero, we hear another father of an American veteran, somebody whose faith has been tested and who knows who to lean on to find the light, a resilient and loyal and humble servant and through his life, he has never once forgotten the values, the moral fiber that made him who he is. The best part is he’s nowhere close to finish. I’m Joe Biden and I approve this message.

Speaker 1: (40:46)
Good ad. Overall, there’s a couple problems of this spot. First, let’s talk about the positive. The positive is this is as close to an endorsement from Obama as Biden has received. And given Biden’s polling numbers at this point, looks like Obama’s not going to give Joe a lift up. But what this, the problem with so, so strategically to use, uh, Obama talking about how good a dude Joe is, is good for 60 seconds, no doubt about it. But the problem is other than establishing the idea and the premise, the Joe Biden is a good man, a humble servant, decent human being. There’s nothing that generates enthusiasm and excitement out of this. There’s no issues that move ball forward in a democratic primary. It doesn’t, uh, establish him as a leader. It looks back in history and says he was a good man. But you need more than that in a competitive primary.

Speaker 1: (41:46)
You just need more than that. So not a bad ad to roll, but this is the silver bullet that Biden’s got. It ain’t going to cut it. So my final thought as we depart going into New Hampshire is the Klobuchar factor. If Amy manages to finish in third place in New Hampshire, I believe that it would keep the moderates totally muddled. Crush Elizabeth Warren, making it impossible. Well 89 possible, making it much harder to stop Bernie because if Warren gets more oxygen sucked out of her campaign, those votes disproportionately, in my opinion, fall to Bernie Sanders, allowing him to pick up a couple more points being more and more and more inevitable. So you rooting for Klobuchar actually is helping, uh, Bernie Sanders. So that’s my takeaway for today. I’m going to have one more podcast prior to the vote in New Hampshire. So I’ll be releasing one Tuesday morning. Get your questions into me by Monday night.

Speaker 1: (43:06)
Tweet me at the Thomas guide. You can email me at the T guide or go on my Facebook, send me, send me a message if you have a pressing question that you want me to answer about, knew him well about anything but about New Hampshire in particular, send me a note. I’ll try to get to it or well, so you can hear my no stir Thomas advice as we go into New Hampshire. And again, I’m going to try to do a podcast late night on Tuesday to give you kind of my, my reaction. And, uh, uh, so look, stay tuned for that. I’ll tweet about it and make sure it goes out. Uh, any of you haven’t signed up for my email list, you got to do it. Go to the T guide.com and click subscribe to my email list. It’s free. Do it because not only do you get email alerts every time there’s a new episode, which is cool, so you don’t have to track it down, but you’re going to get access to exclusive content. It only

Speaker 7: (44:10)
mail subscribers yet. So please do that. And if you are so inclined and really, really liked the show, one way we help it grow is if you do listen on iTunes, I know, I know. I actually don’t, I listen on, gosh, what do I listen to? A bunch of different things. I listen, I heard, I listened on Spotify, couple different platforms, but if you do listen on iTunes, leave me a review and some stars, uh, even if it’s just sound off, love to hear your feedback, number one. Number two, it’s how other people see it. The algorithm gives the show a boost. So other folks that are just cruising iTunes, looking for really, really good political podcasts and find us. So thanks for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed my pre New Hampshire edition of the Thomas guide. We’ll catch you tomorrow on another episode. Have a great day.